Biggest Pool of Carbon in Rocks
Long time period
More CO2 450 million years ago.
Present Day C- Cycling
Taking C pool and burning it for energy and putting in back in the atmosphere
Global Carbon Cycling
We add 7.4 gigatons of carbon per year, much stays in atmospheres
2 gigatons in the ocean
2 gigatons from increased photsynthesis on land (refer to slide)
US Economy is decarbonizing by GDP
Not enough to make the necessary difference
We cannot balance the budget of the land, ocean and atmosphere
Good Idea of C in ocean and atmosphere, but very difficult to do the terrestrial sink. As a result the terrestrial sink is measured based on the other two.
Duke FACE Study: Plants are finding more nitrogen when they are exposed to greater CO2. Cult Nitrogen.
Terrestrial Process Models: “big leaf” versus individual –based
Process based ecosystem model.
Not statistics based.
Based on mechanistic understanding of how fin scale processes ….
Individual Based Models:
Around since mid 80’s
Modeling unique organisms
Example Trees in a Forest: snapshot in time of a forest developing through different stages of succession. These are called gap models.
Lumped Parameter Models:…
Designed to look at long time scales and a common spatial reference system.
Pushing the State of the Art:
Dynamic Coupling has been historically weak
DGVM’s: Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
Models link in a physical way with the atmosphere
Tested against flux tower data.
Socioeconomic Drivers and Feedback:
The slowing of carbon emissions through technological advances or social changes.
The longer you go the more reductions you have to make
Stabilization triangle. (can be broken into wedges that represent 1 gigaton of c per year (carbon mitigation initiative)
Solar increase of 700x
Plant the size of india with bio-fuels crops
UNFCC, Kyoto Protocal, IPCC and Copenhagen
1992 Earth Summit in Rio – stabilization of green house gas emissions in the atmosphere.
1997 Kyoto Protocol: US has not ratified the protocol
IPCC: body of science and policy analysts that provides key information